CROX, AMZN, CAT, GOOG, and TGT

Crocs (CROX)
Crox is forming a bullish pennant formation on declining volume which is very encouraging. This formation is a high risk formation but a break out from this pattern represents a very powerful bullish uptrend move. The volume has been declining last week as it held and consolidated the gap up. The gap held during Thursday's sell off. What remains to be seen is that Tuesday's CPI number must be "just right". If not, we can expect this market to roll over. I do not think that this market is done just yet.

AMAZON (AMZN)
AMZN is forming a short stroke pattern and has been consolidating its monster 40% gain over the past 1 1/2 weeks. If the stock can break above the $65 level in high volume, we can expect strong gains from this point. Additionally, on the daily chart, AMZN appears to have formed the high tight flag formation as well. Either way, this is a high risk high reward chart pattern and again, CPI numbers will determine if the market continues the amazing uptrend and hence AMZN uptrend.

Caterpiller (CAT)
CAT has broken out of the pennant/flag formation and is headed for $80. On the weekly chart it is also finishing the right side of the cup without a handle base, with buy point at $81. But for the adventurous like me, you can get in earlier, if you have faith in this market.

TARGET (TGT)
I know that April comp numbers were bad for 80% of all the retailers out there, Target included. I also know that it may be partly attributed to the slow down in the economy. But has anyone considered also that April was tax deadline day and many Americans are still reeling from paying Uncle Sam. Also, because the retailers were hammered for the past three months, it may be time to start considering retail and I believe Target (TGT) is the best of the breed. Remember, market looks ahead 8 to 12 months, and I have to believe that Target will do better. Why is that? Isn't gasoline prices going through the roof? Isn't inflationary pressure still the FED's primary concern? Don't we have to worry about subprime and housing impact on consumer spending?

Well, yes and no. Again, the determining factor would be to see the CPI numbers. If it shows that the consumers are not impacted too much and that inflationary pressure is also moderating, that will drive the retailers and the general market.

On a side note, I was at Target on more than one occasion here in Phoenix and it is BUSY! I know that it is just one person's view, but you wouldn't believe that this place was doing as bad as the market is pricing it to be. So, I will take a contrarian view and say that the earnings report on May 23, 2007 will surprise. I continue to hold June $62.50 calls.

On a side note, Countrywide keeps hitting highs on rumors of a take over. If the stock goes over $45, I am going to initiate long dated put position. But I am in wait and see mode. For those of you who are new to this site, please read my prior blog on the state of the economy and the housing industry. My view on the economy hasn't changed but I am a momentum trader and I am obeying the "trend". So please don't say that I am flip flopping etc...

Good luck!