Friday, May 18, 2007

Will Crox break $80 this week?

Crox continues to amaze me. It continues to power ahead higher with momentum clearly driving this stock. I think that there is some panic buying that is going on by institutions. While there is constant debate going on about the "fad" nature of this company.





I did my recent investigative visit to Dillards and Macys where the sales people were beaming about the demand of Crox and Jibbitz. According to the sales person at Dillards, Crox shipments have increased but they are sold out within 15 days or less. Jibbitts are the same story and many of the children and adults alike are snapping these little buttons up at $10.99 for 4 buttons. $10.99!





I am interested to see how the next quarter's earnings will go. They have announced several key licensing agreements with Marvel Comic and Batali Bistro shoes last week. Additionally, new styles are hitting the stores as we speak.





As a daily user of these shoes in my line of work, they are more comfortable than anything else.





Crox becomes more and more extended but what do you expect from a high tight flag formation. These formations have been know to launch a 90% to 400% gains in less than 3 to 9 months. So I believe this stock still has some legs. If we get any pullbacks, it will behoove everyone to add to their holdings.





Now for the chart:


Crox is now established the uptrend line and is orderly marching up in high volume and pulling back in lower volume on the daily chart. Momentum have broken above the upper level and consolidating nicely. If it maintains this trajectory, I think that it may be possible to see $85 to $95 by next earnings report due, I think in early August or late July. At this level, I would consider this stock to be at high risk levels but if they report another blow out earnings, it may gap to $105 in no time with subsequent run to $125 to $135 range in a few months (price before split).

I am accumulating September 07 $80 call contracts as I speak. I currently own 80 contracts.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I saw your post last week on the yahoo message board about crox---came to this link. Nice call on crox. I really don't think investors know what the correct valuation of this stock should be, including me. Like you said for right now, there is definately some panic buying and covering going on and you don't want to fight the momentum. Keep posting your comments. Thanks Bob

podboy said...

Yes, history always repeats itself when a revolutionary product that doesn't quite fit the conventional mold. The bearishness on this stock is the fuel for its rise. Thank you so much for reading!