We have just wrapped up an amazing May bull run that rivals many strong markets of the past. While for those who have embraced the momentum and stuck to disciplined trading are being rewarded, those who remained pessimistic on the markets and failed to change course when the trend turned up in mid March are either losing money due to short positions or are scratching their heads in disgust and bewilderment.
This is no time to get giddy and we are getting quite frothy up here. We are also entering the summer months which are usually quiet, subdued, and weak. The Chinese markets failed to rattle US investor's nerves last week. This market has been just unbelievable. I continue to hold reservations but continue to ride the momentum with one finger on the eject button. It is scary. But more often than not, feelings of worry and fear in trading have yielded good results for me in the past. It is times when I am confident, giddy, and fearless, I have lost money. There certainly is significant amount of the proverbial "wall of worry" in the coming weeks:
1. Bond yields have crept up.
2. Inflationary pressure appears contained but at the upper limits of FED comfort zone.
3. Summer plague on Wall Street.
4. Rising oil and gasoline prices.
5 Short term FED interest rate cut unlikely and possible rate cut in the future likely.
6. JFK Airport foiled terror attack.
This market is teflon for bad news and has been for quite some time now. Will it continue? I don't know but the trend is up. It is my friend.
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