Monday, November 19, 2007

Recession is Not Necessarily a Bad Thing.

We are over due for a recession in the US. Generally, recession and expansion in the economy is a cyclical thing. One which is necessary for the dynamics of the economy to function properly. For too long, our economy was "tampered" by Alan Greenspan and to a lesser extent, Ben Bernake. The theory of "New World" Economy is passe to say the least and as we are finding out, detrimental to the long term health of the economy, both domestically and globally.

We have traded the dot com bubble excess for the housing bubble. And now we are faced with the prospects of credit bubble created largely in part by the excessive expansion in the US housing market.

In the US equity markets, for too long, we have been dominated and "manipulated" by the hedge funds, quant funds, and private equity firms that drove the valuations of stocks to stratospheric and unsustainable levels. It is no coincidence then that there have been much abuse of the financial systems by these entities and being done blatantly. SEC lacks the ability to enforce these issues and so we need a recession to purge the financial system so that we can start a new. Sure, down the road, the markets will figure out a way to continue to scam the retail public but at least with the recession, everyone can at least have a better chance at a legitimately functioning financial markets.

One more thing, Goldman Sachs is the biggest offender in this area and they will serve as the fuel for further declines when it is revealed that they have been lying about most of their CDO and subprime losses. If you don't believe me, check out that their alpha fund (hedge fund) is down over 60% and will lose more than $6 billion. How much of that loss was due to subprime? Hmmm...

Any ways, let's embrace this recession, as best as we can. We are in one, like it or not. But the end result will be a fairer system with hopefully some real reforms in our equity and financial markets.

Check out this article from marketwatch.com: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/seventeen-reasons-america-actually-needs/story.aspx?guid=%7B08D803FF%2D60CE%2D4868%2DBDB8%2DD0CFFE9851B0%7D