Sunday, April 15, 2007

Go Read Karl Denninger's Blog!

I have always read with interest and enthusiasm Karl Denninger's blog. While I incorporate a lot of my own opinionated posts, Karl's site is full of interesting facts and insights. I think it will provide a valuable addition to my blog. But even more strongly so today, please go read his blog on http://market-ticker.denninger.net/index.html

The title is: "The Week Ahead- Market Preview". Please pay attention to the graph on Mortgage Refinance Resulting in 5% or Higher Loan Amount (Cash Out). Notice the parallels of the housing down turns and how refinance activity resulting in cash out is clearly noted. That is a trend and trend must be heeded along with statistically significant projections.

I also would like to point out the following after reading his blog:
  • NASD margin borrowing is at its record levels
  • Refinancing homes led to ATM effect which is now drying up
  • Consumer spending is slowing significantly
  • Credit card debt levels are at an all time high

Also, please read between the lines when assessing last week's rally. It came on below average volume with no confirmation that the institutions are buying. If anything, they are selling into the weakness.

I have fears for this market.

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