Apple computer is completing the right shoulder of the head and shoulders base. Head and Shoulders base is a bearish chart pattern that has preceded stock price declines that are considered significant. At this time, it appears $89 is the resistance, and if the market conditions continue to deteriorate, it is possible to test the $83 mark within next week. How can I make this call since Standard and Poors and others are so bullish on this stock? It is because we are in a new down trend with high volatility. Trend must be obeyed. Additionally, during market corrections (although I believe we may be entering a bear market phase), many of the fundamentals of the stock and analyst opinions are contrary. There seems to be a lot of things going for Apple with the iPod sales, introduction of the new iPhone which is scheduled to be released in May, and increasingly popular Macintosh Computers. Additionally, they also blew the doors off of their earnings report last quarter. So why am I bearish?
1. Apple has been a top performer, a darling of many mutual funds and analysts, and an American Icon. But deep down, what matters most is institutional sponsorship and with the performance that it has generated over the past 5 years, most big money institutions probably bought it. In Wall Street, it is the institutions that move the markets. Not retail.
2. On the chart, it appears that Apple had topped on the week of 1/19/2007.
3. Economy is not okay. It is not healthy. Given the praises of Paulson, Bernake, and all others including CNBC, the economy will cool faster than people expect. The subprime market will bleed into other mainstream financial markets. Credit will be tougher to obtain.
4. Inflation is not under control. But more importantly, I think we have to switch our thinking and consider stagflation, a combination of high inflation and slow to zero economic growth. Just look at today's jobs report, which was good. However, no sooner was this announced then fears of inflation took over. I don't think any economic report will help this market right now.
My price target for Apple is $75 by June. I believe another shoe is ready to drop in the near future.
Oh yeah, did anyone see the bearish action in BIDU and Google despite analyst upgrades this week?
Please be careful out there!
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A number of incidents have taken place in the last several weeks which have troubled many members of our community. Let me get to the crux of the matter. While no statement I'm about to make should be construed as suggesting or recommending that any person commit an illegal act of any kind, you should realize that the little I've written so far already buttresses the assertion that Google maintains a cozy relationship with hotheaded fault-finders. I guess I should start by saying that Google once tried to paint pictures of manipulative worlds inhabited by socially inept, misguided sewer rats. If you consider this an exception to the rule then you doubtlessly don't understand how Google operates. I hope, however, that you at least understand that I can't follow its pretzel logic. I do, however, know that I decidedly hope that the truth will prevail and that justice will be served before Google does any real damage. Or is it already too late? My best guess, for what it may be worth, is based on two key observations. The first observation is that it is hardly surprising that talking about Google in the highly charged vortex of larrikinism is always burdened with agitation and diversion. The second, more telling, observation is that if you were to tell it that I, hardheaded cynic that I am, have a score to settle with it, it'd just pull its security blanket a little tighter around itself and refuse to come out and deal with the real world. I plan to keep our courage up and encourage others to do the same. Are you with me -- or against me? Whatever you decide, most of you reading this letter have your hearts in the right place. Now follow your hearts with actions. No matter how much talk and analysis occurs, I wonder if Google really believes the things it says. It knows they're not true, doesn't it? As you no doubt realize, that's a particulary timely question. In fact, just half an hour ago, I heard someone express the opinion that the issues surrounding snobbism are more complex and embedded than Google will admit. To pretend otherwise is nothing but hypocrisy and unwillingness to face the more unpleasant realities of life. Even so, Google's eccentricity is surpassed only by its vanity. And its vanity is surpassed only by its empty theorizing. (Remember its theory that the federal government should take more and more of our hard-earned money and more and more of our hard-won rights?) Now that I've been exposed to Google's actions, I must admit that I don't completely understand them. Perhaps I need to get out more. Or perhaps Google wants us to feel sorry for the unpatriotic calumniators who force some to live by restrictive standards not applicable to others. I insist we should instead feel sorry for their victims, all of whom know full well that if you think that skin color means more than skill and gender is more impressive than genius, then think again. I'd like to finish with a quote from a private e-mail message sent to me by a close friend of mine: "Google simply wants to win at all costs the war against our individualism and our liberties".
As for Apple, Apple's reinterpretations of historic events are a syncretism of stupid oligarchism and censorious stoicism. Well, that's getting away from my main topic, which is that most acts of quislingism are committed not by manipulative fanatics but by Apple's henchmen in an attempt to create an ideological climate that will enable Apple to depressurize the frail vessel of human hopes. Sad, but true. And it'll only get worse if it finds a way to use rock music, with its savage, tribal, orgiastic beat, to goad litigious snollygosters into hurling epithets at its enemies. If Apple honestly believes that some of my points are not valid, I would love to get some specific feedback from it. What if we collectively just told Apple's subalterns, "Sure, go ahead and woo over naive, feral slanderers by using tactics such as scapegoating, reductionist and simplistic solutions, demagoguery, and a conspiracy theory of history. Have fun!"? That would be worse than nit-picky; it would cause materialistic subversion to gather momentum on college campuses. I don't normally want to expose anyone to rigorous sarcasm, satire and disdain, but Apple deserves it. If you can make any sense out Apple's stolid actions, then you must have gotten higher marks in school than I did.
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