Monday, March 05, 2007

Rumblings of Bottom

I was reading through Jim Cramer's blogs at The Street.com. He is talking about the market and some high flying momentum stock such as F5 Networks (FFIV) and Akamai (AKAM) as "putting" in the bottom. What the hell does this mean? The daily chart does show that Akamai has finished the day in the upper range and did not sell off today. So does that mean that this stock is ready to go up? I think Mr. Cramer forgets that a down trend has been firmly established and to buck this trend before the market confirms an uptrend, would be asking his faithful readers to go jump off the cliff. I believe that he has hurt a lot of people the past few months with his irresponsible rants on The Mad Money, such as Mastercard (MA), Google (GOOG- remember Google to $600!), Cisco calls, his bold predictions about the top 3 stocks for 2007 (Apple, New York Stock Exchange, and Cisco). Did anyone see where these stocks are at since he recommended them? Sure, we can blame the market right now but I believe that his call that the market bottom is near is irresponsible and is likely to get other people in serious financial trouble. Perhaps they deserve it for listening to Mr. Cramer.

Today was another confirmation of what's ominous about the markets currently. Everything, I mean everything is selling off. Gold, Oil, Equities are all selling off globally. I cannot fathom the underlying reason for this sell off. I have learned long ago not to question the market.
The historians will rightfully assign the reasons and analysis of the current de novo sell off that we are experiencing. Whatever the reason, it is troubling.

The bears are in firm control of the markets right now. As I alluded to before, this market presents a unique opportunity to trade the short term movements. But it would be suicidal to start nibbling at the beaten down stocks in hopes that the bottom is near. No one knows. It is far better to sit on cash or go short I think.

I added to my BIDU short today as I took advantage of the "dead cat bounce" today above $100 level. It has breached the $100 level and tomorrow is a big test to see if it can stay below that level. If it does, it will create a powerful resistance at $100. None the less, if I had to be a betting man, I would say that we will be testing the 200 DMA soon at around $93 level. Time will only tell.

I also started a small April $30 put position (20 contracts in all) in LHCG (LHC Group), a home health care delivery company. It has acted very strong in light of recent market melt down. The law of probability says that when a stock is strong in the face of overwhelming counter trend, it will succumb and base below the gap level. In this case, the gap is near $27 to $28 level.

Tomorrow appears to open higher from today's thrashing of the markets. Astute traders can look to reload on their short positions or scal to the long side as a day trade. The same names that I have been tracking will be followed: GOOG, RIMM, CME, BIDU, LHCG

Good luck everyone, stay safe!

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