Sunday, March 18, 2007

BIDU retesting 200 EDMA

As stated before, if BIDU breaks below $93.80, there will be no meaningful support until $90 to $85 level. BIDU has breached the ABC head and shoulder neckline and generally, this is a very bearish sign. Fundamentally, BIDU will continue to deteriorate in the short term and the future outlook is murky as well. Google has been gaining marketshare in China and will continue to do so. Additionally, entering the Japanese market is a big mistake on BIDU's part and raises serious questions of why they are expanding too rapidly when they have not established dominance in the Chinese search market. As stated in prior conference call, BIDU expects the revenue to decline for at least the next two to three quarters due to costs associated with entering the Japanese market and because of lagging advertising revenue. These will lead BIDU to continue to correct its inflated share price down to the more fair valuation of $52 per share in the long term. Additionally, unless the Chinese companies are more transparent regarding their accounting practices, I would not be a long term holder of these stocks even at these levels.

No comments: